There is no battle for the final spot in the Red Sox rotation, as Connelly Early, Payton Tolle seem destined for Worcester

We live in a world that’s increasingly predetermined. From the results in your search engine, to the next spoon-fed video YouTube recommends, to the advertisements you’ll see in this very article (which by the way you’ll see a lot less of if you sign up for Over The Monster and join our little community). Equations and algorithms run our life.

Enter the Red Sox rotation, which like our lives, feels increasingly preprogramed. There SHOULD be an intriguing little battle between Johan Oviedo, Connelly Early and Payton Tolle for the final spot behind Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and Brayan Bello — but is there?

Yesterday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive did an outstanding job of outlining the factors at play, and by factors I mean the reason Oviedo is almost certainly going to get the first crack at the rotation over both Early and Tolle, no matter how fabulous their stuff looks on the mound down in Fort Myers. In short, Early has to spend 35 days in the minors for the Sox to gain an extra year of control of his services in 2032, and Tolle needs to spend 46 days down there to get that same extra year of control in 2032. So guess where they’re going come April?

Last week, we did our quarterly approval polling here at Over The Monster, and one of the questions asked “Do you believe the Red Sox will play service time manipulation games with Payton Tolle and / or Connelly Early?” A whopping 77% of respondents answered “yes” to that question, which is kind of astounding when you think about it. We can see what’s happening, and we know what’s about to transpire, but few cry foul because we’re slaves to the most “efficient” way to run a ballclub.

And of course, there’s also just enough plausible deniability where a couple of things could go off script and the kids end up breaking through anyway. The first of course is injury, and that’s partially how Early and Tolle got their shot last September. The rotation thinned, the other obvious options were clear losers, and the club needed fresh arms to get to the finish line. This spring, I see five arms in front of Early and Tolle and nearly a month to go before Opening Day, so it’s not impossible a slot opens up. Stuff happens!

Secondly, Early or Tolle could agree to a team friendly contract. Look no further than last spring when Kristian Campbell made the Opening Day roster over both Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer despite not looking nearly as good as either of them in camp. And wouldn’t you know it, just days after the season started, Campbell and the club agreed to an eight-year, $60 million deal. (What an amazing coincidence! I’m sure there’s no possible way that was agreed to before camp ended and influenced who made the roster.)

In any case, those are the two most likely ways I see Early and/or Tolle making the roster out of the gate, but as far as actually pitching their way into the rotation through good ol’ fashion merit? Well, let’s just say my cynical ass has some serious doubts. In fact, the better these guys look, the more likely the Sox are to to try and wrestle away that extra year of control. It’s all part of that Cobra Effect we talked about last year with Anthony and Mayer, just playing out with a new cast of characters.

Now of course, the Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) is still right there, and in theory it should work to get these guys up in Boston right away, but Cotillo even notes in his piece, this scenario remains quote “unlikely.”

So here’s how this probably plays out: If everybody stays healthy through March, Early and Tolle will need to “work on a few more things in Worcester so they’re truly ready for major league lineups.” However, if injuries pop up, then the Sox will be “so impressed” with one or both of them and they couldn’t leave them off the roster. Here, they will have “earned” that rotation spot.

Oh, and if Early or Tolle somehow do make the rotation the first swing through without any injuries, bet the farm on a contract extension being magically agreed to within days of the season starting. I mean, just look at how the big name prospects were called up last year for refence:

Kristian Campbell: Agreed to a long-term, team friendly contract in the spring, and he got a shot right away.

Marcelo Mayer: Called up in May when Alex Bregman went on the IL with a quad injury.

Roman Anthony: Called up in June when Wilyer Abreu went on the IL with an oblique injury.

Payton Tolle and Connelly Early: Called up at the end of the summer when Dick Fitts hit the IL, Walker Buehler was released, and Dustin May got injured within a couple weeks of each other.

The pattern is clear. Why would this year be any different?

Over the weekend, Payton Tolle did an interview with the Section 10 guys, and in it he mentions a recent interaction with a fan where upon confirming Tolle’s concentrating on a starting role, the fan said something along the lines of “oh, so you’re going to be starting the season in Worcester?” And I couldn’t help but laugh because that fan could easily be from one of two possible extremes — Both of which seem amazing well represented among Red Sox fans:

1. He could be your classic New England a-hole who has no problem telling anybody how much they suck to their face.
2. He could be somebody who knows exactly how service time manipulation works, how the Red Sox use it, and why Tolle is a prime candidate to experience it in 2026.

The is no in-between here!

But at the end of the day, despite that amusing little story, doesn’t this suck? Sports are supposed to be one of the last remaining bastions of spontaneous, unpredictable things in life where the human element still rules the show. And yet, when it comes to who fills out the first few trips through the rotation, we’re likely stuck with a preprogrammed script. On one hand, I get it, but on the other hand, I’m really, really underwhelmed by it.

Now, a couple final thoughts before I wrap this up.

One: I actually do think Tolle needs to spend some time in Worcester to work on his secondary pitches. He needs this better secondary stuff to complement his electric fastball and keep hitters off balance. Connelly Early however should have a real chance at getting major league starts. While not as flashy as Tolle, he has a much deeper arsenal and already knows how to use it.

Secondly, because I need to scratch this itch, I believe the bloated, oversaturated playoff field is a huge problem when it comes to treating players properly. When fewer teams make the postseason, and there’s fewer division winners to reward, there’s more pressure on clubs to put the best team possible on the field from day one. Do you remember what April and May games felt like as recently as the early 2000s when fewer teams made it to October and you had to get out of the gate hot to keep up with the Yankees and the top Wild Card team?

Part of the reason why it’s inefficient to play young players who may be better, more productive roster fits is because the sport’s overlords have devalued the 162 game season to the point that you can kind of get away with this chicanery. Not giving another inch in terms of more teams in the postseason (or even pushing to reduce the number of postseason teams) is a sneaky huge issue I’d stand firm on if I were the players in the upcoming war with the owners next winter.

In the meantime, Early and Tolle should start looking at short-term rental options in Worcester.