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When I get older, losing my bat speed/many seasons from now/will you still call me among the best/putting up a .900 OPS?
Those lyrics to the Beatles’ When I’m Sixty Four—very slightly modified from the original— must be ringing in Bryce Harper’s ears right now. Entering his age-33 season, he is no longer young. He’s not overwhelmingly old, either. But he is well into the years in which aging becomes a factor. The oft-asked question about his potential to return to elite status is really a question about aging; his talent, drive, and tenacity are certainly not in question. The sole consolation to the aging is that it is not personal, as none are spared from it. Perhaps a gentler way to put it would be that we do not walk that path alone. Harper can turn to the examples of other Phillies legends to see how they took the sharp turns and gradual declines of the aging curve. Someday in the future, another Phillies great will come along, and and further still in the future he will hit his thirties, and will look to the example of Harper to provide signs and portents of how his own travels through that decade of life will go. Whether that example will be encouraging or not is yet to be seen.
Richie Ashburn
The comparison here is going to be extremely inexact, given that modern conditioning regimens and medical treatments far outstrip what Whitey had available in his era. Still, Putt-Putt (forgive the injudicious use of nicknames, Ashburn’s are just too good to leave out) offers a somewhat encouraging example for Harper. In 1958, his age-31 season, Ashburn took home the Senior Circuit’s batting title with a .350 average (that also beat out anything the Junior Circuit’s bushers could produce). In 1959, at the age of 32, Ashburn’s production fell off a cliff. His batting average dropped to .266. He went from leading both leagues in triples with thirteen to producing only a pair. Perhaps the starkest way to present it is by rWAR: in 1958, he had a rWAR of 7. In 1959, he dropped beneath replacement value, with an -0.9. He went from elite to being far from it. He also, unfortunately, went from being a Phillie to not being one, arriving in his new ivy-strewn home of Wrigley Field via trade following that dismal ‘59 campaign.
But though he did leave Philadelphia, he did not leave the ranks of the productive pros. His first season in Cubbie blue, his age-33 campaign, saw him revitalize himself, boosting his OPS from .667 to .753. He lead the National League in walks, and both leagues in OBP. He concluded the campaign with 4.4 rWAR and, one must imagine, a jolt of confidence. Sadly, it would be something of a last hurrah: he had a -0.4 rWAR season with the Cubs in 1961, then concluded his career with a 2.1 rWAR effort for the newly-born Mets.
Mike Schmidt:
Mike Schmidt’s decline came suddenly, shockingly, saddeningly. But it didn’t come in his age-33 season. It wouldn’t come for years afterward. Schmidt’s 1983 performance was indeed a downturn from his age-32 season, but not even the harshest Phillies fan could call a decline from 7.4 rWARto 6.9 all that worrying. The age-33 version of Michael Jack Schmidt lead both leagues in round trippers with 40, and in free passes with 128. If there was anything to complain about, it was his National League-leading 148 strikeouts. Those punchouts were probably cold comfort for the pitchers who he otherwise pummeled with four-baggers and tormented via the extraction of walks (128, more than anyone else in baseball that season). Schmidt would remain a top player, never dropping beneath 5 WAR until 1988, when a 1.9 rWAR season presaged the abbreviated campaign that would prompt his sudden retirement the following year.
Ryan Howard
The Big Piece’s age-33 campaign was a resurgence for the slugger, though not a terribly encouraging one in context. Howard’s age-32 season, 2012, was a major disappointment: hampered by injuries, he played in fewer than half of his team’s games, and posted career-lows in batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage. In a bit of fearful symmetry, his rWAR was precisely the opposite of what it had been the year prior: 1.2 in 2011, and -1.2 in 2012. In 2013 Howard still struggled with injuries, managing just a few more games than he had the year prior. But he did recover his performance somewhat, with his batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage all jumping back up. He provided production above replacement value, if just barely. Unfortunately, it proved to be the last time he would do so. He struggled at the plate in the next three seasons and was a below-average hitter by OPS+, a major retreat from the ground upon which he had once stood.
Jimmy Rollins
Thirty is a big turning point in life, and, it would turn out, in Jimmy Rollins’ career. In 2009, his age-30 season, Rollins dropped from 5.5 rWAR the season prior to 1.8. His performance at the plate declined in all three slash line categories, and he stole 16 fewer bases. The next few seasons were much the same, and by the time he was 33 he was batting precisely .250, no longer flirting with .300 as he had in his younger days. He remained resilient, playing in no fewer than 138 games per season between 2011 and 2015, and he remained fast, putting up 30 stolen bases at 32 and 33. But his best days were firmly behind him.
Chase Utley
As the 2010 season reached its midpoint, Chase Utley, age 31, took the field for the All-Star Game introductions. It was his fifth appearance in the Midsummer Classic, and it wouldn’t be his last. But it would be his last for a while. Utley’s age-32 season saw his performance drop, with his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging all dropping. He still ended up an above-average hitter and player, though not to the same extent that he had been before. His age-33 season was marred by injury to the point where he only played half of it; it was to be hoped that his good, not great performance could be blamed on that. It was not to be. Utley was a solid player for the next few seasons before the decline worsened. He ended up retiring just before he turned 40. A good career, and a long one. But Harper, who has stated a desire to take the field at 40, is hoping his thirties will look more like Schmidt’s than Utley’s.