sports

Late First‑Round Trades Yield Super‑Bowl Chances

Published May 2, 2026 · Updated May 2, 2026 · Yahoo Sport

Research of the last decade shows roughly one in eight late first‑round picks (25‑32) becomes a Pro Bowler, giving teams a 12.5% chance to snag a future star when they trade back.

Statistical review of picks 25‑32 from 2016‑2025 shows 12 Pro Bowl selections out of 80, a 15% rate. When accounting for trade‑down acquisitions like Tre’Davious White and Tyler Linderbaum, the figure drops to 12.5%. This data supports the strategy of moving back in the first round to target high‑value players in the second round. playerbros.org

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