Todd McShay’s latest 2026 mock draft has Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza as the projected No. 1 pick, selected by the Tennessee Titans. The Titans value his timing and play‑action skills, while the New York Jets are slated to take defensive end Arvell Reese at No. 2. The rest of the first round is dominated by left tackles and a few remaining quarterbacks, reflecting teams’ need for reliable pass‑protection and the scarcity of ready‑to‑start QBs.

Fernando Mendoza is already penciled in as the No. 1 selection in Todd McShay’s newest 2026 mock draft, released last week, with the Tennessee Titans tabbing the Indiana quarterback as the safest solution to a decade long search for downfield timing and middle-of-field accuracy. McShay’s grade sheet, discussed on the 16 March episode of The McShay Show, puts Mendoza a clean tier above the rest of the class because his processing speed matches the league’s most copied offensive blueprint, the wide-zone, play-action attack popularized by the Shanahan branch. Edge rushers and left tackles litter the top ten, yet the scarcity of a passer who can win before the snap and deliver a 15-yard dig on rhythm keeps the first call locked on the quarterback.

Why a timing specialist now goes first

Front offices have watched the past two draft cycles burn high picks on quarterbacks who still can’t consistently hit the “Dagger” or “Deep Over” concepts that define third-down conversion charts. Mendoza’s 2025 tape shows the ball out at 2.35 seconds on average with placement that lets receivers run through the catch, numbers that mirror league leaders in passer rating on middle-field throws. McShay’s comp in the podcast is a young Kirk Cousins with more velocity, a nod to the mold coordinators want, a passer who keeps the offense on schedule without requiring elite scramble talent. The Titans, holding the top choice after last season’s 4-13 record, run a Klint Kubiak-infused system that asks the quarterback to set protections and throw the backside cross off play-action, the exact rep Mendoza completed at a 72 percent rate in Bloomington. Taking him first is less splashy than selecting a 270-pound edge bender, but the error cost of missing on a franchise quarterback dwarfs the upside of any other position, so the pick follows risk math rather than hype.

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What pushed Arvell Reese to the Jets at two

New York lands the rawest elite athlete in the draft one slot later. Reese, who started only 20 games at Arkansas, still led the SEC in pressure rate once teams adjusted for blitzes and stunts. McShay notes that while the defensive end’s hand usage is “half-formed,” his get-off and closing burst already grade in the 95th percentile among recent edge prospects. The Jets can afford the projection because they return veterans Jermaine Johnson and Haason Reddick on early downs, letting Reese enter as a situational rusher while he refines counter moves. Value enters the equation as well, four quarterbacks and three offensive tackles carry first-round grades, but only one edge shows top-five physical traits, so the second slot becomes the last sure-fire place to secure a difference-making pass rusher.

How the board tilts toward the offensive line

By pick six, general managers decide between quarterback flyers and sure starters in the trenches. McShay sends LSU’s Garrett Dellinger to the Panthers and Notre Dame’s Aidan Keil to the Chargers, both plug-and-play left tackles who allowed one sack combined in 2025. The run reflects supply and demand, only seven blockers carry Round 1 grades versus eleven defenders, so teams needing line help risk waiting until the late teens and finding a 40-grade athlete instead of a 55-grade technician. The mini-run also illustrates how league-wide depth charts have thinned, 18 teams enter the offseason with a question mark at either tackle spot, and the 2027 class currently shows two underclassmen with first-round potential, making this spring the time to strike.

Todd mcshay 2026 mock draft

The quarterback ripple behind Mendoza

Alabama’s Ty Simpson hears his name called fourth by New England, North Dakota State’s Cole Payton follows at eight to Atlanta, and Miami’s Carson Beck slips to Washington at twelve. McShay’s podcast co-host Steve Muench points out that each fit mirrors offensive philosophy rather than pure big-board ranking. Simpson offers plus arm strength for the Patriots’ multi-layered sideline concepts, Payton brings elite play-action efficiency for a Falcons staff that leans on outside zone, and Beck’s quick-game accuracy suits the Commanders’ West Coast variant. None grade within ten points of Mendoza on the 100-point scale, reinforcing the gap between a prospect ready to run an NFL offense and those who will need a year of footwork and read refinement.

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  • Mendoza’s timing and play‑action proficiency lock him as the safest franchise quarterback at No. 1.
  • Reese provides a high‑grade edge rush that the Jets can nurture with veteran depth.
  • The scarcity of first‑round left tackles drives teams to reach early for blockers.
  • A deep 2027 quarterback class reduces immediate demand for second‑tier QBs in 2026.
  • Trade activity is expected around the No. 2 slot, but McShay predicts the Jets will keep Reese.

Why 2027 already matters

Scouts inside the league are hedging bets because next year’s quarterback group is rumored to be the deepest since 2021. McShay mentions that “three GMs have privately said they’ll pass on a quarterback this April unless they land Mendoza,” preferring to tank for a chance at USC’s Elijah Brown or Ohio State’s Travis Harden. The dynamic depresses demand for the second tier in 2026, pushing talented but incomplete passers like Georgia’s Jake Ray down the board and inflating the value of defenders. The ripple shows up in trade chatter, clubs sitting between picks 15 and 25 are exploring deals for 2027 capital rather than grabbing a quarterback now, a chess move that could make the upcoming season unusually transparent in the race for the No. 1 slot next spring.

  • Todd McShay grades Mendoza a clean tier above his peers for his 2.35‑second release and 72 % play‑action success rate.
  • Titans’ top pick aligns with their Klint Kubiak‑infused system that values protection‑first quarterbacks.
  • Reese’s get‑off and closing burst rank in the 95th percentile among recent edge prospects.
  • Left tackles Dellinger and Keil combined allowed only one sack in 2025, making them plug‑and‑play options.
  • Only seven offensive linemen earned Round‑1 grades versus eleven defensive prospects, underscoring line scarcity.
  • The 2027 quarterback pool is considered the deepest since 2021, influencing teams to consider future drafts.
  • McShay’s betting line suggests no trade will happen for the No. 2 slot.
McShay 2026 Mock Draft has Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza first overall to Titans

What this means for draft weekend in Nashville

The top pick feels locked only because Tennessee’s front office has telegraphed the Mendoza choice since the combine; still, the real action starts at second overall where the Jets could auction the slot to a quarterback-needy team or stick with Reese. McShay’s betting line, discussed on the podcast, is that no trade materializes because the gap between QB1 and QB2 is too wide for any club to pay the freight required to jump. Further down, expect a sprint on cornerbacks between picks 20 and 32, the position group is graded evenly from late first to mid-second, so teams in win-now mode may reach to avoid missing the tier entirely. Finally, watch for a run on interior offensive linemen on day two, only two guards carry second-round grades, yet roster needs are rampant, creating the classic third-round grab that quietly decides playoff rosters.

FAQ

Why is Mendoza projected as the first overall pick?
Because his processing speed and timing fit the wide‑zone, play‑action offense the Titans run, and he consistently delivers accurate deep‑middle throws, a skill many teams lacked in recent drafts.
What makes Arvell Reese a top‑two selection?
Reese showed elite edge rush speed and a 95th‑percentile burst despite limited starts, giving the Jets a high‑upside pass rusher they can develop behind veteran help.
How does the mock draft treat offensive line prospects?
By the sixth pick McShay fills two left‑tackle slots with LSU’s Garrett Dellinger and Notre Dame’s Aidan Keil, highlighting the thin supply of first‑round‑grade tackles and the league’s demand for immediate blockers.
Which other quarterbacks appear in the first round and what are their fits?
Alabama’s Ty Simpson is placed fourth for New England’s sideline concepts, North Dakota State’s Cole Payton eighth for Atlanta’s play‑action scheme, and Miami’s Carson Beck twelfth for Washington’s West Coast style.