Just over a month ago we learned that the Cincinnati Reds tried, and failed, to sign star shortstop Elly De La Cruz to a contract extension that would have made him “the highest paid Red ever.”
We don’t know if that meant by season. We don’t know if that meant by total dollar value. What we do know, though, is that there was interest from the club itself in forking over millions and millions of dollars to cement a cornerstone of their future – and even though it didn’t materialize with Elly, that could mean there’s money there to make it happen with the rest of the roster.
There’s always the chance that money was only earmarked in a way similar to the pursuit of Kyle Schwarber in free agency this winter, in that it was only ever going to get spent on a unique, franchise-altering player whose presence – both in the lineup and in jersey sales – would generate revenue in ways other players simply would not. Still, with the team’s commitment to developing their own players, we’ve reached the point in that life-cycle where locking down some of their core players to cost-controlled deals may make that as ‘sustainable’ as Nick Krall has preached for the last three plus years.
It’s still the same mentality that led them to sign Hunter Greene years ago, an anchor of their rotation right now and potentially through the 2029 season. Not only do they get him beyond his six seasons of team control through the arbitration process, but they both add on additional years of would-be free agency and now know exactly how much he’ll make each year (instead of leaving that up to the arbitration gods). For a cost-conscious team that typically operates on shoestring budgets, that’s a vital part of the process.
The question becomes where the Reds would turn from Elly at this juncture.
It doesn’t appear it will be to Tyler Stephenson, who’s entering his final season of team control before free agency. The team already inked Jose Trevino to a solid deal to be a part of the catching position for a few more years, and top prospect Alfredo Duno looks poised to mash his way to the big leagues as early as 2027.
On the pitching side, it doesn’t look like it will be Brady Singer, either. Like Stephenson, he’s in his final year of team control before free agency, and the Reds have drafted and developed Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder (and added Brandon Williamson via trade years ago) to help bolster the rotation going forward.
If an extension were to come for a part of their rotation, perhaps it would to Andrew Abbott, who has yet to reach arbitration despite already having 11.7 bWAR and 413.2 IP under his belt. As a somewhat unknown out of the University of Virginia, he only landed a $1.3 million signing bonus back in 2021, so perhaps he’s precisely the kind of player who’d jump at early guaranteed money instead of waiting four more years to fully cash in on a longer term extension. However, signing him after his All-Star season in 2025 might end up begin a case of ‘buying high’ if he’s never able to fully replicate such a stellar season.
The flipside of that, at least in terms of the rotation, would be with Nick Lodolo. He’s a former 1st rounder who banked a $5.4 million signing bonus and is already getting a big raise in his arbitration years, but he’s also a pitcher who still seems like he’s yet to truly have a full breakout season. With only two years of team control left, getting him to take his eyes off a lucrative free agency may be difficult, but he seems like precisely the kind of rare talent who has a season much bigger than he’s ever shown before within, and tying him down now may look like a huge bargain later.
On the position player side, there are endless options, and perhaps their collective trait of still being raw is why none of them are signed long-term. None of them, Elly included, seem to have had a season at all approaching their peak (aside from 30 year old TJ Friedl and, perhaps, Spencer Steer), so it’s hard to know just how much more they can continue to flourish.
Could Noelvi Marte develop into a star? The scouting reports have long suggested as much, but he’s also never played a full year, switched positions twice already, and has a PED suspension on his record.
Matt McLain had a small-sample breakout in 2023 that had a lot of question marks in its peripherals, but a litany of injuries and underperformance has hampered the highly touted former 1st rounder ever since. Sal Stewart, meanwhile, has all the upside in the world on top of an excellent first showing in the big leagues, but if the club is already willing to move him down the defensive spectrum, would they really want to jump at throwing a ton of money at a guy they only see destined to play 1B/DH?
It’s an exercise in mental gymnastics to process all the scenarios, but what’s clear is that this group of Reds that seemed ‘young’ just a season or two ago has now reached the point where all key parties involved are on the cusp of getting more expensive through the arbitration process anyway. And when that happens, the Reds are going to be forced to pick and choose which ones to keep around and which ones to trade away, as it will end up being far too expensive for their tastes to keep the entire band together. Sticking to that plan will require some contracts to be signed, and that’s going to need to happen sooner than later.
Which Red do you think is the best combo of deserving and timely to get the next big contract extension?